Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

– VRB 

When it is not possible to forecast a prevailing surface wind direction due to its expected variability, for example, during light wind conditions (less than 3 kt) or thunderstorms, the forecast wind direction should be indicated as variable using “VRB”. When the wind is forecast to be less than 1 kt the forecast wind speed should be indicated as calm. 

– BECMG or TEMPO 

Should be used followed by the time period during which the change is expected to occur. The time period should be indicated as the beginning and end of the period in whole hours UTC. 

The change indicator “BECMG” and the associated time group should be used to describe changes where the meteorological conditions are expected to reach or pass through specified threshold values at a regular or irregular rate and at an unspecified time during the time period. The time period should normally not exceed 2 hours but in any case should not exceed 4 hours. 

The change indicator “TEMPO” and the associated time group should be used to describe expected frequent or infrequent temporary fluctuations in the meteorological conditions which reach or pass specified threshold values and last for a period of less than one hour in each instance and, in the aggregate, cover less than one-half of the forecast period during which the fluctuations are expected to occur. If the temporary fluctuation is expected to last one hour or longer, the change group “BECMG” should be used or the validity period should be subdivided. 

Where one set of prevailing weather conditions is expected to change significantly and more or less completely to a different set of conditions, the period of validity should be subdivided into self-contained periods using the abbreviation “FM” followed immediately by a four-figure time group in whole hours and minutes UTC indicating the time the change is expected to occur. The subdivided period following the abbreviation “FM” should be self-contained and all forecast conditions given before the abbreviation should be superseded by those following the abbreviation. 

– PROB 

The probability of a forecast of temporary fluctuations in meteorological conditions should be indicated, as necessary, by use of the abbreviation “PROB” followed by the probability in tens of per cent, placed before the change indicator “TEMPO” and associated time group. A probability of an alternative value or change of less than 30 per cent should not be considered sufficiently significant to be indicated. A probability of an alternative value or change of 50 per cent or more, for aviation purposes, should not be considered a probability but instead should be indicated, as necessary, by use of the change indicators “BECMG” or “TEMPO” or by subdivision of the validity period using the abbreviation “FM”. The probability group should not be used to qualify the change indicator “BECMG” nor the time indicator “FM”. 

The indicator “PROB” shall not be used in trend forecasts. 

– NOSIG 

The trend forecast shall indicate significant changes in respect of one or more of the elements: surface wind, visibility, weather and clouds. Only those elements shall be included for which a significant change is expected. However, in the case of significant changes in respect of cloud, all cloud groups, including layers or masses not expected to change, shall be indicated. In the case of a significant change in visibility, the phenomenon causing the reduction of visibility shall also be indicated. When no change is expected to occur, this shall be indicated by the term “NOSIG”. 

– FM, TL or AT 

When a change is expected to occur, the trend forecast shall begin with one of the change indicators “BECMG” or “TEMPO”. 

The change indicator “BECMG” shall be used to describe forecast changes where the meteorological conditions are expected to reach or pass through specified values at a regular or irregular rate. The period during which, or the time at which, the change is forecast to occur shall be indicated, using the abbreviations “FM”, “TL”, or “AT”, as appropriate, each followed by a time group in hours and minutes. 

When the change is forecast to begin and end wholly within the trend forecast period, the beginning and end of the change shall be indicated by using the abbreviations “FM” and “TL”, respectively, with their associated time groups. 

When the change is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period but be completed before the end of that period, the abbreviation “FM” and its associated time group shall be omitted and only “TL” and its associated time group shall be used. 

When the change is forecast to begin during the trend forecast period and be completed at the end of that period, the abbreviation ”TL” and its associated time group shall be omitted and only “FM” and its associated time group shall be used. 

When the change is forecast to occur at a specified time during the trend forecast period, the abbreviation “AT” followed by its associated time group shall be used. 

When the change is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period and be completed by the end of that period or when the change is forecast to occur within the trend forecast period but the time is uncertain, the abbreviations “FM”, “TL” or “AT” and their associated time groups shall be omitted and the change indicator “BECMG” shall be used alone. 

The change indicator “TEMPO” shall be used to describe forecast temporary fluctuations in the meteorological conditions which reach or pass specified values and last for a period of less than one hour in each instance and, in the aggregate, cover less than one-half of the period during which the fluctuations are forecast to occur. The period during which the temporary fluctuations are forecast to occur shall be indicated, using the abbreviations “FM” and/or “TL”, as appropriate, each followed by a time group in hours and minutes. 

When the period of temporary fluctuations in the meteorological conditions is forecast to begin and end wholly within the trend forecast period, the beginning and end of the period of temporary fluctuations shall be indicated by using the abbreviations “FM” and “TL”, respectively, with their associated time groups. 

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period but cease before the end of that period, the abbreviation “FM” and its associated time group shall be omitted and only “TL” and its associated time group shall be used. 

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to begin during the trend forecast period and cease by the end of that period, the abbreviation “TL” and its associated time group shall be omitted and only “FM” and its associated time group shall be used. 

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period and cease by the end of that period, both abbreviations “FM” and “TL” and their associated time groups shall be omitted and the change indicator “TEMPO” shall be used alone.